WTXS32 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 110.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 110.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.3S 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.6S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.9S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.2S 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.8S 105.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.0S 101.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 110.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE OVERCAST LAYER OBSCURING THE LLCC AND ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES FOR ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF CURRENT INTENSITY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH, HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM ARE HINDERING OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SSTS ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY GUIDING THE SYSTEM TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. BEYOND TAU 36 WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL STEERING PHILOSOPHY, BUT DIFFER WIDELY IN THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//