WTXS32 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 107.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 107.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.1S 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.0S 103.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.8S 101.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.5S 99.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 107.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE TC CENTER. A 090214Z GPM 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A PINHOLE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (70 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. DESPITE AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH INCREASING (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SSTS/OHC VALUES, AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THIS STEERING FEATURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM ON A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE. BASED ON THIS TRACK, TC 15S IS FORECAST TO ENTER AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SHARPLY COLDER SSTS RESULTING IN STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING PATTERN LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//