WTXS52 PGTW 082100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 170408194414 2017040818 15S ERNIE 006 01 255 08 SATL 025 T000 169S 1087E 090 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD T012 174S 1071E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 181S 1053E 060 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD T036 189S 1032E 050 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD T048 197S 1011E 040 R034 025 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD T072 208S 0979E 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 108.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 108.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.4S 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.1S 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.9S 103.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.7S 101.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.8S 97.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 108.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. // 1517040418 114S1147E 15 1517040500 116S1134E 15 1517040506 119S1123E 15 1517040512 122S1116E 25 1517040518 125S1112E 25 1517040600 129S1110E 30 1517040606 133S1108E 35 1517040612 138S1107E 35 1517040618 145S1105E 40 1517040700 149S1104E 65 1517040700 149S1104E 65 1517040706 154S1103E 95 1517040706 154S1103E 95 1517040706 154S1103E 95 1517040712 158S1104E 105 1517040712 158S1104E 105 1517040712 158S1104E 105 1517040718 159S1104E 130 1517040718 159S1104E 130 1517040718 159S1104E 130 1517040800 162S1103E 110 1517040800 162S1103E 110 1517040800 162S1103E 110 1517040806 166S1100E 95 1517040806 166S1100E 95 1517040806 166S1100E 95 1517040812 167S1095E 90 1517040812 167S1095E 90 1517040812 167S1095E 90 1517040818 169S1087E 90 1517040818 169S1087E 90 1517040818 169S1087E 90