WTPS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 168.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 168.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.0S 167.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.2S 167.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.9S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.9S 167.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.8S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 27.9S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 168.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 172256Z GMI IMAGE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2221Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-A IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10- 20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 16P IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TWO RIDGES, ONE TO THE EAST AND ONE TO THE WEST. THESE TWO RIDGES WILL STEER THE STORM GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH ALONG AN S-CURVE SHAPED TRACK. THESE RIDGES WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS RESULTING IN LIKELY NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 070530).//