WTPS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 167.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 167.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.3S 167.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.2S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 19.3S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 20.6S 165.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.6S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.7S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 167.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081052Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF T3.0 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM ALL FIX AGENCIES, AND SATCON/ADT VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SSTS OF 30C, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES NEAR 65. TC COOK IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 48 CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC COOK WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES THE STR RIDGE AXIS WHERE VWS REMAINS LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER NEW CALEDONIA. BEYOND TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STRONGER VWS, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. TC COOK IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE FULL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID- LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER THE SPREAD IN THE TRACKERS INCREASE TO 350 NM BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//