WTPS31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 165.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 165.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.3S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.2S 167.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 25.9S 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 27.4S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 32.5S 175.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 165.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 092246Z GMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 092236Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. TC 16P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONSOLIDATING AROUND A 16 NM EYE. TC 16P CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IN THE NEAR TERM, CARRYING THE CYCLONE TOWARD LANDFALL IN CENTRAL GRANDE TERRE ISLAND, NEW CALEDONIA, WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, DRIVEN BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, TC 16P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE POLEWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE THROUGH TAU 48. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//