WTPS31 PGTW 110100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (COOK) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 24.9S 166.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 166.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.5S 168.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 27.9S 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 30.0S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 167.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (COOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE AND DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 102215Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16P HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVED INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS AND INCREASING). A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS AND IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TC COOK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//