WTIO31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051APR2017// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 90.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 90.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.0N 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.6N 92.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.1N 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 20.8N 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF DHAKA, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151201Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 31 CELSIUS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THEREAFTER LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 150100).//