WTPS31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 169.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 169.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.2S 168.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 13.6S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 14.2S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.1S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.2S 166.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.6S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.4S 169.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 169.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOWING IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN 031842Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS, AND VERY GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CREATING A SLIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN PHASE WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR. CURRENTLY TC DONNA IS TRACKING WESTWARD GUIDED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING TC DONNA TO TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN TRACK MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//