WTPS31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 166.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 166.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.7S 168.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 24.7S 169.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 27.5S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 167.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS). POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODES THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, TC DONNA IS TRACKING INTO COOLER WATERS AS IT MOVES SOUTH. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST THAT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE RESUMING ITS MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.//