WTPS32 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 176.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.6S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.0S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.4S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.5S 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.1S 178.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.5S 176.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 176.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF AVATA, SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 100950Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 50 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE IN AGREEMENT WITH AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY A POOR OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY TC ELLA IS TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC ELLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SLIGHTLY ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE AND INTRODUCING MODERATE WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK MOTION UP TO TAU 36. THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OR TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE TROUGH. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//