WTPS32 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 178.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 178.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.2S 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.4S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.5S 179.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.5S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.2S 176.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.2S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 178.2W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST. AN 112036Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE AND ASSOCIATED SCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF A VERY COMPACT CORE OF STRONG WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, NEAR THE TOP OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN UPPER- LEVEL COL, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND POOR OUTFLOW IN THE COL. ELLA IS TRACKING IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW TC 19P TO RETURN TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL, WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z. //