WTPS32 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 178.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 178.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.9S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 13.9S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 13.7S 179.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.4S 177.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.5S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 178.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 121126Z GMI 37 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE SOME PRESSURE / SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO ENCROACHING WESTERLIES AND MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 12, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC ELLA SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//