WTPS52 PGTW 120300 WARNING ATCG MIL 19P SWP 170512023551 2017051200 19P ELLA 007 01 325 04 SATL 060 T000 139S 1780W 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD T012 142S 1786W 075 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD T024 144S 1792W 070 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD T036 145S 1797W 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD T048 145S 1795E 045 R034 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD T072 142S 1768E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD T096 142S 1738E 030 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 178.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 178.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.2S 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.4S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.5S 179.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.5S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.2S 176.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.2S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 178.2W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST. AN 112036Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE AND ASSOCIATED SCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF A VERY COMPACT CORE OF STRONG WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, NEAR THE TOP OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN UPPER- LEVEL COL, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND POOR OUTFLOW IN THE COL. ELLA IS TRACKING IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW TC 19P TO RETURN TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL, WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z 1917050712 173S1750W 20 1917050718 169S1745W 20 1917050800 166S1739W 25 1917050806 163S1732W 25 1917050812 159S1725W 30 1917050818 155S1724W 30 1917050900 152S1728W 35 1917050906 150S1730W 40 1917050912 149S1732W 45 1917050918 149S1734W 45 1917051000 148S1744W 45 1917051006 146S1753W 45 1917051012 144S1759W 50 1917051012 144S1759W 50 1917051018 143S1766W 55 1917051018 143S1766W 55 1917051100 141S1769W 55 1917051100 141S1769W 55 1917051106 140S1772W 60 1917051106 140S1772W 60 1917051112 142S1775W 65 1917051112 142S1775W 65 1917051118 142S1778W 70 1917051118 142S1778W 70 1917051200 139S1780W 75 1917051200 139S1780W 75 1917051200 139S1780W 75