WTPZ42 KNHC 312035 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022017

400 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017



THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER, PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASSES

AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED

EAST-TO-WEST WITH THE CENTER LIKELY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE

CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB

AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT, SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL

INTENSITY.



THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A

SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/2.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE

CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 H.  AFTER THAT,

THERE IS STILL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHETHER THE

CYCLONE, OR ITS REMNANTS, WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD OVER MEXICO

OR STALL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST.  A MAJOR CHANGE SINCE

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS THAT THE ECMWF NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO

MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 H, WHICH

IS FASTER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.  HOWEVER, THE UKMET AND

THE UK ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL SHOW A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 36 H OR SO.

GIVEN THE CHANGE IN THE ECMWF, THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED

NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NOW CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE

ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 36-48 H.  ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN THE

FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS

CONTINUE.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.  THE ENVIRONMENT OF

MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.=