WTPZ43 KNHC 120233 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032017

1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017



DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS WANED

CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF

DRY AIR AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RESULTING IN THE

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW BEING FULLY EXPOSED. DVORAK

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5 FROM TAFB AND T1.0 FROM SAB,

SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT, WHICH IS

PROBABLY GENEROUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/04 KT. AFTER A NORTHWARD JOG

DURING THE PREVIOUS 6-HOUR PERIOD, THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE

SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE

PAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF

THE CYCLONE BUILDS SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE RELIABLE

GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO

BE WEAK AT LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT, SOME

ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES TO

THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF

THE CONSENSUS MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION.



THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 29 DEG C

AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT

FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREFORE, SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS

EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIGHT, LOW-LEVEL INNER-CORE STRUCTURE=