WTPZ43 KNHC 120835 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032017

400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2017



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED

AT THIS TIME, WITH EPISODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE

CENTER AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO

THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER, AND THERE HAVE BEEN

NO OBSERVATION FROM NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  BASED

ON THE ABOVE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.



THE MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC, AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF A

LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 325/3.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN A AREA OF LIGHT

STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 H, WITH

THE CENTER LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 24 H OR

LESS AND THEN REMAINING INLAND.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR

TO, BUT JUST SOUTH OF, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IT LIES NEAR THE

CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO

THE OVERALL SLOW FORWARD SPEED THE CENTER COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE

ERRATICALLY BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL.



THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER IN AN ENVIRONMENT

OF MODERATE SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL, AND THUS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION

TO TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED.  THIS PORTION OF THE

INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE, AND AN=