WTPZ45 KNHC 091456 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052017

900 AM MDT SUN JUL 09 2017



EUGENE'S EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT THIS MORNING AND COLD CLOUD

TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE WRAPPING MORE SYMMETRICALLY AROUND THE

CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS

FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED, SUGGESTING AROUND 90 KT AT 12Z.

IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, EUGENE'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE

CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND THE OBJECTIVE ADVANCED DVORAK

TECHNIQUE CURRENTLY INDICATES A SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER INTENSITY.  A

BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES GIVES 100 KT AT ADVISORY TIME AND EUGENE

IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE.



HOWEVER, EUGENE WILL BE MOVING FROM WARM TO VERY COOL SST, SO IT IS

LIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE PEAKING VERY SOON. STEADY TO RAPID

WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE ON MONDAY DUE TO THE HURRICANE INGESTING DRY

AND STABLE AIR INTO ITS INNER CORE.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE

SYSTEM WILL LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS - IF NOT

SOONER - AND NO LONGER BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE

OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN INDICATED IN THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM

STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE COAMPS-TC DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.



EUGENE HAS SPED UP SOME AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE

MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36

HOURS OR SO, DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC

RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AS EUGENE WEAKENS, IT

SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF