WTPZ45 KNHC 101450 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052017

800 AM PDT MON JUL 10 2017



THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF EUGENE IS LOSING ORGANIZATION AND THE

RAGGED EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.

HOWEVER, AN 0952Z AMSR2 AND 1311Z GMI MICROWAVE PASSES STILL

INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED EYE IN THE 37 AND 89 GHZ FREQUENCIES.

MOREOVER, THESE IMAGES SUGGEST ABOUT A 20 NM S-N TILT BETWEEN THE

NEAR-SURFACE CENTER AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPARENT IN THE

GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15 KT OF

SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DIAGNOSED BY CIMSS.



THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT, FROM A BLEND OF THE SAB AND TAFB

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT VALUE.  EUGENE

SHOULD MOVE PERPENDICULAR ACROSS THE LARGE SST GRADIENT DURING THE

NEXT TWO DAYS AND REACH 22C WATER ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS ALONG WITH THE

DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTING TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE

SHOULD CAUSE STEADY - IF NOT RAPID - WEAKENING.  IT IS ANTICIPATED

THAT EUGENE WILL LOSE DEEP CONVECTION IN ABOUT TWO DAYS AND BECOME A

REMNANT LOW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE HCCA

CORRECTED CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



EUGENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT, PRIMARILY

BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

HURRICANE.  AS EUGENE LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN A COUPLE DAYS,

IT SHOULD BE ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWINDS UNTIL

DISSIPATION IN ABOUT FIVE OR SIX DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

IS BASED UPON THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS METHOD - TVCN - AND IS SLIGHTLY