WTPA41 PHFO 221443 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017

500 AM HST SAT JUL 22 2017



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FERNANDA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A

STRONGLY SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 6 HOURS PRIOR TO A

RECENT SMALL BURST OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE

STORM. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT

25 KNOTS FROM PHFO, TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY FROM SAB, WITH THE ADT

INTENSITY FROM UW-CIMSS ALSO COMING IN AT 25 KNOTS. DESPITE THE

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, WE HAVE KEPT

FERNANDA, PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR

THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE 22/0640Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A SMALL

AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/8 KT, REPRESENTING AN

INCREASE IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTHERN OUTLIER SOLUTION,

WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE FARTHEST TO THE SOUTH. VERY HOSTILE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER FERNANDA OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING THE SYSTEM SHALLOW WITH THE TRACK

INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. AS A RESULT,

THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THAT

OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFEX AND

TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS THAT ARE LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH DUE TO THE

INFLUENCE FROM THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

THROUGH SYSTEM DISSIPATION.