WTPZ41 KNHC 140837 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017

200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2017



A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY DISCERNIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL

INFRARED IMAGERY, AND THIS FEATURE IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD

CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN

THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ONLY. T-NUMBERS HAVE

CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO T4.5 AND T5.0 ON THE DVORAK

SCALE, AND THE BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY

OF 85 KT.



FERNANDA IS MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT OF

LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN, AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE

FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. GIVEN

SUCH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING, AND THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN

INDICATED IN THE CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST SHIPS

RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX (RI) IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER.  BEYOND

3 DAYS, FERNANDA WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS, AND A GRADUAL

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.



FERNANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10KT. THE

HURRICANE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE, AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE

WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THEN, FERNANDA COULD BEGIN

TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE,

AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TRACK GUIDANCE

CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE