WTPZ41 KNHC 202036 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017

200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2017



FERNANDA IS COMPRISED OF A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT

IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND

IT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS GENEROUS.  WHILE THE SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD INCREASE, A COMBINATION

OF CONTINUED MODERATE-TO-STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR

SHOULD KEEP FERNANDA STEADILY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST

PERIOD.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IN

ABOUT 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 H, AND BOTH OF THESE EVENTS

COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.  THE NEW

INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE TO A

TROUGH AFTER 96 H, IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS

EXCEPT THE GFS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/11.  FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE

INCREASINGLY WEAK AND SHALLOW VORTEX IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL

TRADE WINDS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE

SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE

PREMISE THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE WESTWARD IN THE CURRENT

ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW TRACK NOW LIES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE

MODEL CONSENSUS.



THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ON FERNANDA.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER