WTPZ44 KNHC 230253 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017

1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017



A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND OVER THE

CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  IN ADDITION, A

RECENT SSMI/S OVERPASS SHOWS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE

BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  BASED ON THIS, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT, THE UPPER END OF THE SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL

STORM HILARY.



HILARY SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS, AND THUS IT

SHOULD AT LEAST STEADILY, IF NOT RAPIDLY, STRENGTHEN.  AFTER DAY

4, THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR, AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS

WEAKENING AT THAT TIME.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BELOW THAT

OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS, AND IT IS

POSSIBLE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST INTENSITIES MAY BE

REQUIRED IN LATER ADVISORIES.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC,

AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, THERE IS

A POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E,

ALTHOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE ARE THIS

SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HILARY'S TRACK.  THE NEW FORECAST

TRACK IS SIMILAR TO, BUT A LITTLE NORTH OF, THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND