WTNT80 EGRR 251619 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.08.2017 HURRICANE HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 95.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2017 26.4N 95.8W MODERATE 00UTC 26.08.2017 27.8N 96.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2017 28.9N 96.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2017 29.3N 97.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2017 29.3N 96.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2017 28.9N 96.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2017 28.9N 96.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2017 28.5N 95.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2017 29.0N 95.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 28.9N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 29.9N 95.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 30.6N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2017 32.8N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 29.1N 81.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.08.2017 29.1N 81.2W WEAK 12UTC 27.08.2017 30.2N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2017 29.5N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2017 30.9N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2017 32.1N 77.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2017 33.9N 75.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 35.3N 71.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2017 36.7N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 38.0N 63.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2017 40.0N 59.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.5N 135.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.08.2017 11.9N 135.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.08.2017 12.2N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 12.7N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2017 13.3N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 18.0N 107.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.08.2017 18.6N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2017 19.5N 110.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2017 20.0N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2017 21.7N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 18.1N 30.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.08.2017 18.1N 30.9W WEAK 12UTC 30.08.2017 18.7N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 19.2N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2017 19.9N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251619