WTPZ43 KNHC 201432 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

800 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2017



KENNETH IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE

CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND CURVED BANDS

BEYOND THAT FEATURE, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.0/65 KT, AND

RECENT ADT VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE

ABOUT THE SAME.  BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

INCREASED A LITTLE TO 65 KT, MAKING KENNETH A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.



THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS THE SAME AS BEFORE, 280/13

KT.  A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF

THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.  AFTER THAT TIME, KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

EVEN SLOWER TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WHEN IT MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE

RIDGE CAUSED BY A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT

THEY DIFFER IN WHERE AND WHEN KENNETH BEGINS TO RECURVE.  THE

CONSENSUS AIDS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW CYCLES,

AND THIS FORECAST IS LARGELY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.



THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR KENNETH TO STRENGTHEN

SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME,

HOWEVER, COOLER WATERS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK AND DRIER AIR

SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING TREND AND CAUSE WEAKENING.  IN

ADDITION, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN

SOUTHERLY SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT 72 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD AID IN