WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2017



SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

ALTHOUGH THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY DISTINCT, THE CONVECTION IN THE

EYEWALL IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  AN AVERAGE OF

THE LATEST FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB AND ADT VALUES

FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUPPORT LOWERING THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED A LITTLE, TO 105 KT.



KENNETH IS NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY WHEN IT MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED

BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT, AND LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK

FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE.



THE HURRICANE IS NEARING THE 26 DEG C ISOTHERM, AND IT IS EXPECTED

TO CROSS INTO THOSE COOLER WATERS BY TONIGHT.  COOL WATERS, STABLE

AIR, AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY OR

EVEN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 DAYS, OR

SOONER, WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS BELOW 23 DEG C AND IN AN

ENVIRONMENT OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF SHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT

WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND IVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  21/2100Z 18.3N 131.6W  105 KT 120 MPH