WTPZ43 KNHC 220240 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2017



KENNETH'S PREVIOUSLY DISTINCT EYE IS CLOUDING OVER AS ITS EYE

TEMPERATURE COOLS, WHILE THE SURROUNDING EYEWALL CONVECTION WARMS

AND WEAKENS. CORRESPONDINGLY, THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB,

SAB, AND ADT HAVE DROPPED AND A BLEND OF THEM SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY

OF 95 KT AT 00Z.  CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE

STRUCTURE IS JUSTIFICATION FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 KT AT ADVISORY

TIME.  WHILE NO RECENT SIZE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE,

EARLIER AMSU ESTIMATES ALONG WITH THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE COLD

CLOUD CANOPY SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT ABOUT 80 NM FROM THE

CENTER ON AVERAGE.



KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN - PERHAPS RAPIDLY - UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF COOL TO COLD SSTS, DRY AND LESS UNSTABLE AIR, AND

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  KENNETH SHOULD LIKELY

LOSE ALL OF ITS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN 2-3 DAYS, SIGNALING

ITS TRANSFORMATION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.  THE

OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY PACKED

DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT, AS IT

ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND

TOWARD A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH.  OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS, KENNETH SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT

ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF SPEED.  ONCE KENNETH BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL

CYCLONE, IT SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW ITS