WTPZ44 KNHC 010846 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

300 AM MDT FRI SEP 01 2017



CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS,

AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION

AS LIDIA INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

STILL, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED T3.5,

AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.  RECENT ASCAT PASSES

MISSED LIDIA'S CORE, BUT THEY DID INDICATE A LARGE SWATH OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF

CALIFORNIA.



FIXES SUGGEST THAT LIDIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY DURING THE

PAST 6-12 HOURS, AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

(325 DEG) AT 7 KT.  THE STORM IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH

CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH

SOUTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC, AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD KEEP LIDIA ON

A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  LIDIA'S CENTER IS

LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO LATER THIS MORNING

AND THEN CROSS ON/OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA THROUGH 36 HOURS.  WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE

FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED, THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL, AND THE

ECMWF IS STILL ONE OF THE SLOWEST.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A

LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND

ECMWF SOLUTIONS, CLOSEST TO TVCN AND HCCA.



LIDIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,

ESPECIALLY AS THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL