WTPZ44 KNHC 020853 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

300 AM MDT SAT SEP 02 2017



LIDIA'S CONVECTION HAS A RATHER AMORPHOUS PATTERN IN INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING, BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES

INDICATE THAT THE STORM STILL HAS SOME BANDING FEATURES.  THE

CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND AGAIN AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN

BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.  SINCE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND AND CLOUD TOPS

ARE GRADUALLY WARMING, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT, WHICH

IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS.  THE

STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF

THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED SINCE LIDIA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN OVER THE COLD WATERS OFF THE

PENINSULA'S WEST COAST.  LIDIA SHOULD LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION OVER

THE COLD WATERS BY 36 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT IT WOULD BECOME A

REMNANT LOW.  THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY KEEP LIDIA AS A SEPARATE

AND DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS, BUT THEY

THEN SHOW IT MERGING OR BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGER AREA OF

VORTICITY BY DAY 3.  THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A DAY 3

POINT FOR CONTINUITY, BUT WHATEVER SURFACE LOW EXISTS AT THAT TIME

IS LIKELY TO BE A NEW AND SEPARATE FEATURE.



LIDIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD (320/10 KT) ALONG THE SOUTHERN

EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

UNITED STATES, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36

HOURS.  A BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME