WTPZ44 KNHC 300247 RRA

TCDEP4



POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

900 PM MDT TUE AUG 29 2017



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE

SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SOME BANDING FEATURES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE

WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD AND

THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AT THIS TIME.  THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK

CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

CONDUCIVE FOR THE DISTURBANCE TO STRENGTHEN, AND IT WILL LIKELY

BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

DISTURBANCE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AFTER THAT TIME,

HOWEVER, DECREASING SSTS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING

TREND AND CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE

HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE, AND IT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST.



THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE

THERE IS NO CLEAR CENTER, BUT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE

DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT.  A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD

TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3

DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE LEFT BEYOND THAT TIME WHEN THE

SYSTEM MOVES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE

WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS

CYCLE, AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT

DIRECTION.  THIS FORECAST TAKES THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO