WTPZ44 KNHC 301437 RRA

TCDEP4



POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

900 AM MDT WED AUG 30 2017



THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED

OVERNIGHT, THOUGH AVAILABLE DATA INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURES

CONTINUE TO FALL AND THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT.  IT

APPEARS THAT THERE ARE TWO CENTERS IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION, AND THE

NHC POSITION USES A MEAN CENTER.  ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST TODAY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION, BUT A

MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD START TOMORROW.  IF THE

CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WATER

TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC FORECAST

IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, JUST A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL

CONSENSUS.  BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING

HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, THE HURRICANE

WATCH IS MAINTAINED.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE

SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE IT TRAVERSES EITHER LAND OR THE COOLER WATERS

WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.



AS BEFORE, WITH THE LACK OF A DEFINITE CENTER THE INITIAL MOTION IS

QUITE UNCERTAIN, WITH THE CURRENT ESTIMATE AT 335/8 KT.  FOR THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE SYSTEM/TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE EASTERN END OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL

CYCLONIC GYRE.  IN 3-5 DAYS THE MOTION SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST TODAY, AND THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS