WTPZ44 KNHC 302036 RRA

TCDEP4



POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

300 PM MDT WED AUG 30 2017



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM

IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF

33 KT, AND SINCE THE PASS CAUGHT LESS THAN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION,

IT IS ASSUMED HIGHER WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED.  THUS THE INITIAL WIND

SPEED IS SET TO 35 KT.  HOWEVER, THE LOW STILL DOES NOT HAVE A

WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION CONTAINING

SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS, SO IT WILL STAY A POTENTIAL TROPICAL

CYCLONE.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS CONSIDERED MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE

POOR INITIAL ORGANIZATION.  IF THE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, THE

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE TO

STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, JUST

A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, THE CYCLONE

SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE IT TRAVERSES EITHER LAND OR THE COOLER WATERS

WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.



A LONG-TERM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS 345/6.  THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD

MOVE ON THIS GENERAL COURSE AROUND A WEAK RIDGE OVER CENTRAL

MEXICO, BEFORE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TURN AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE

OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR

FROM 36 HOURS TO 96 HOURS, ALTHOUGH AGAIN THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL

EASTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.  THUS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS WELL.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN