WTPZ44 KNHC 311439 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

900 AM MDT THU AUG 31 2017



CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT LIDIA HAS

BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, WITH INTERLOCKING CONVECTIVE

BANDS FORMING AROUND A MUCH BETTER DEFINED CENTER.  SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT, AND

THE LATEST CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS CLOSE TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT, AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/8 KT BETWEEN A

MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC.  THIS MOTION

SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME, A

MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

BECOME THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE AND FORCE LIDIA TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 5.  WHILE

THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED, THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK, AND THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BOTH THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.



ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES

CLOSE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINUSLA, AND WHILE THE CHANCE OF

LIDIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IS LOW IT IS NON-ZERO.  WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED AFTER 12 HOURS DUE TO THE CENTER MOVING UP THE SPINE OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BUT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY

TO SPREAD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WELL EAST OF THE CENTER.  LIDIA

IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 DUE TO ITS INTERACTION