WTNT80 EGRR 180406 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.09.2017 HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 71.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2017 31.7N 71.5W INTENSE 12UTC 18.09.2017 33.5N 71.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 35.0N 72.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 36.1N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 37.6N 71.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 39.2N 71.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2017 39.6N 70.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2017 39.4N 69.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2017 39.2N 69.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 39.1N 69.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2017 39.0N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 38.9N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 38.4N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 37.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2017 13.3N 37.9W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2017 14.7N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 16.1N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 17.6N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 19.2N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 20.7N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 22.0N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 23.9N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 27.0N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 28.9N 48.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2017 29.4N 49.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 30.2N 49.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 31.0N 47.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 57.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2017 13.9N 57.9W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2017 14.6N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 15.2N 60.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 16.2N 61.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 17.2N 63.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.2N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2017 19.0N 66.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2017 19.7N 67.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 20.6N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 22.0N 69.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 23.7N 70.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 25.3N 71.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 27.4N 71.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 111.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2017 21.1N 111.2W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2017 21.7N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 22.0N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 22.8N 114.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 23.6N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 127.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2017 17.4N 127.2W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2017 18.1N 127.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 18.5N 127.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 18.1N 127.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 17.5N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 16.5N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 15.8N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 15.2N 131.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 14.8N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 14.4N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 14.0N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 13.5N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 12.8N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 9.7N 163.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2017 9.6N 164.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 9.5N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 10.8N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 12.2N 170.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 13.4N 172.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 14.0N 174.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 14.7N 177.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 14.8N 180.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 14.8N 176.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 14.5N 173.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 14.1N 171.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.9N 139.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2017 13.2N 139.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 13.6N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 13.9N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 13.6N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 13.3N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 13.1N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 12.7N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 12.1N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 11.7N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 11.3N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 10.6N 145.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.4N 157.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2017 13.7N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 13.4N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 13.2N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 13.2N 160.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 13.9N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 14.5N 163.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 15.2N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 15.9N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.0N 93.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2017 13.0N 93.3W WEAK 12UTC 23.09.2017 13.3N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 13.3N 93.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180406