WTNT82 EGRR 221623



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.09.2017



        TROPICAL STORM JOSE       ANALYSED POSITION : 39.7N  69.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 22.09.2017    0  39.7N  69.1W      992            40

    0000UTC 23.09.2017   12  39.6N  69.4W      996            35

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   24  39.1N  69.6W     1002            29

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   36  38.4N  68.7W     1006            27

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   48  38.8N  68.2W     1009            26

    0000UTC 25.09.2017   60  39.0N  68.9W     1012            22

    1200UTC 25.09.2017   72              CEASED TRACKING



             HURRICANE MARIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N  70.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 22.09.2017    0  21.9N  70.9W      958            74

    0000UTC 23.09.2017   12  23.4N  71.7W      948            80

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   24  25.0N  72.4W      946            77

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   36  27.0N  72.7W      932            84

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   48  28.9N  73.0W      932            83

    0000UTC 25.09.2017   60  30.3N  72.9W      937            77

    1200UTC 25.09.2017   72  31.3N  72.9W      949            78

    0000UTC 26.09.2017   84  32.3N  72.9W      948            78

    1200UTC 26.09.2017   96  33.9N  73.1W      953            74

    0000UTC 27.09.2017  108  35.2N  72.9W      956            66

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  120  36.5N  72.0W      956            65

    0000UTC 28.09.2017  132  37.8N  69.4W      951            66

    1200UTC 28.09.2017  144  39.4N  64.4W      950            74



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 18.9N 106.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   36  18.9N 106.6W     1002            26

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   48  19.2N 106.6W     1002            26

    0000UTC 25.09.2017   60  19.6N 106.7W     1002            28

    1200UTC 25.09.2017   72  19.8N 106.9W     1002            30

    0000UTC 26.09.2017   84  20.2N 106.9W     1002            26

    1200UTC 26.09.2017   96  20.8N 107.2W     1003            25

    0000UTC 27.09.2017  108  21.3N 107.2W     1003            25

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  120              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.9N 124.7W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  120  11.9N 124.7W     1003            31

    0000UTC 28.09.2017  132  13.4N 122.1W     1001            38

    1200UTC 28.09.2017  144  14.7N 120.7W     1001            45



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 10.4N 146.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 28.09.2017  132  10.3N 146.2W     1004            29

    1200UTC 28.09.2017  144  11.0N 145.7W     1003            36



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 11.0N 136.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 28.09.2017  144  11.0N 136.8W     1006            32





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 221623