WTNT82 EGRR 301613



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.09.2017



        TROPICAL STORM MARIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N  48.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 30.09.2017    0  40.3N  48.3W      979            61

    0000UTC 01.10.2017   12  42.2N  42.2W      983            58

    1200UTC 01.10.2017   24  44.8N  35.4W      992            53

    0000UTC 02.10.2017   36  47.5N  27.0W     1007            40

    1200UTC 02.10.2017   48  48.6N  17.8W     1014            36

    0000UTC 03.10.2017   60              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 37.4N  61.4W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 02.10.2017   36  37.4N  61.4W     1008            38

    1200UTC 02.10.2017   48  37.2N  59.3W     1001            47

    0000UTC 03.10.2017   60  38.0N  54.4W     1003            39

    1200UTC 03.10.2017   72              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 134.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 02.10.2017   48  11.4N 134.7W     1008            26

    0000UTC 03.10.2017   60  11.8N 133.9W     1006            28

    1200UTC 03.10.2017   72  12.0N 132.3W     1007            29

    0000UTC 04.10.2017   84  12.1N 130.3W     1005            33

    1200UTC 04.10.2017   96  11.7N 129.0W     1007            26

    0000UTC 05.10.2017  108  11.5N 128.6W     1007            19

    1200UTC 05.10.2017  120  11.7N 128.5W     1007            20

    0000UTC 06.10.2017  132  12.1N 128.3W     1006            20

    1200UTC 06.10.2017  144  12.5N 127.8W     1006            23



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.4N 141.5W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 03.10.2017   60  12.0N 141.8W     1005            28

    1200UTC 03.10.2017   72  13.3N 142.3W     1005            33

    0000UTC 04.10.2017   84  14.1N 144.0W     1003            35

    1200UTC 04.10.2017   96  13.8N 145.5W     1002            37

    0000UTC 05.10.2017  108  13.8N 147.4W     1000            38

    1200UTC 05.10.2017  120  13.5N 149.4W     1001            39

    0000UTC 06.10.2017  132  13.4N 151.8W     1001            44

    1200UTC 06.10.2017  144  13.2N 154.1W     1003            40



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 20.0N 108.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 05.10.2017  120  20.0N 108.8W     1003            25

    0000UTC 06.10.2017  132  20.8N 110.2W     1002            22

    1200UTC 06.10.2017  144  22.2N 111.1W     1006            19



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.8N  89.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 06.10.2017  144  12.8N  89.8W     1000            37





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 301612