WTXS31 PGTW 160900 WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 180915132929 2018091606 01S ONE 006 01 250 09 SATL 025 T000 114S 0668E 035 R034 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD T012 119S 0645E 035 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD T024 122S 0622E 035 R034 000 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD T036 118S 0599E 035 R034 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD T048 107S 0567E 035 R034 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD T072 080S 0497E 030 AMP SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 66.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 66.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.9S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.2S 62.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.8S 59.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 10.7S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 8.0S 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 160432Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MARGINAL DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON A 160434Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25-29 AND 30-34 KT WIND BARBS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BUT AGREES WITH THE FMEE ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 01S HAS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO HIGH, 25-30 KTS, SHEARING CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LLCC. COOLER (24- 25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND THE HIGHER VWS ARE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE 5 KT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 01S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS SHOW THAT 01S WILL TURN DUE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24, THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND TRACK TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COAST AS ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, WHILE MAINTAINING A MARGINAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE TO THE COOL SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. 01S WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 48 UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 210 NM SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, WITH ECMWF THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. // NNNN