WTPS51 PGTW 170300 WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 160217020816 2016021700 11P WINSTON 016 01 090 06 SATL 040 T000 175S 1718W 090 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T012 175S 1705W 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 175 NW QD T024 176S 1703W 120 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD T036 177S 1705W 125 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD T048 179S 1716W 120 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 125 SW QD 165 NW QD T072 188S 1737W 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD T096 195S 1740W 100 T120 202S 1736W 095 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 016 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 171.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 171.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.5S 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.6S 170.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.7S 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.9S 171.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.8S 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.5S 174.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 20.2S 173.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 171.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO IMPROVE WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WRAPPING INTO A VERY COMPACT EYE THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. A 162321Z GPM 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDS A DISTINCT AND COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING TC WINSTON REMAINS FAVORABLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ARE NOW IN THE LOW RANGE (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS HIGH (30 CELSIUS) AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN ADDITION TO THE ESTABLISHED EASTWARD CHANNEL. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE DEEP-LAYER NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC WINSTON ON ITS CURRENT EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE, TC WINSTON HAVING ALREADY SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC, A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILD IN FROM THE EAST, CAUSING TC WINSTON TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36, UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES, TC WINSTON WILL TRANSLATE TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC WINSTON WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAK INTENSITY REACHING 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING TC WINSTON AS AN INTENSE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL DEPICTS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// 1116020818 111S1680E 20 1116020900 117S1686E 20 1116020906 123S1689E 20 1116020912 130S1692E 20 1116020918 136S1695E 20 1116021000 141S1700E 25 1116021006 145S1704E 30 1116021012 149S1707E 35 1116021018 153S1709E 40 1116021100 157S1711E 40 1116021106 161S1714E 45 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021512 206S1781W 50 1116021518 198S1767W 40 1116021600 190S1755W 45 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021700 175S1718W 90 1116021700 175S1718W 90 1116021700 175S1718W 90 NNNN