WTPS51 PGTW 212100 WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 160221194045 2016022118 11P WINSTON 035 01 260 05 SATL 010 T000 177S 1727E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 181S 1722E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD T024 190S 1725E 100 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD T036 206S 1733E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 115 NW QD T048 220S 1740E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD T072 249S 1731E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD T096 275S 1677E 045 T120 283S 1629E 040 AMP 096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 035 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 172.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 172.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.1S 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.0S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.6S 173.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.0S 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.9S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 27.5S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 28.3S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 172.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE THAT HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE THAT WAS VISIBLE IN EARLIER IMAGERY HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. A 211633Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A PRONOUNCED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING THE SHEAR ANALYSIS AND INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO A MARKED WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.0 AND T5.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC WINSTON IS TRACKING THROUGH A MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOLID POLEWARD CHANNEL, MODERATE VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE STEERING STR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE AS REFLECTED IN THE MOST RECENT STORM MOTION BEING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. THIS PROCESS IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD BY TAU 12. A SECOND RIDGE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDS IN TO THE EAST AND ASSUMES STEERING, HELPING TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. BY TAU 24, IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, TAPPING INTO STRONGER OUTFLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE DIVERGENT PATTERN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHER VWS AND DECREASING SSTS LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AROUND TAU 72, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD UNDER A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW HEIGHT CENTER. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS WARM CORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGIN SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH A COMPLETE TRANSITION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH DECREASING SPREAD AFTER THE POLEWARD TURN, LEADING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// 1116020818 111S1680E 20 1116020900 117S1686E 20 1116020906 123S1689E 20 1116020912 130S1692E 20 1116020918 136S1695E 20 1116021000 141S1700E 25 1116021006 145S1704E 30 1116021012 149S1707E 35 1116021018 153S1709E 40 1116021100 157S1711E 40 1116021106 161S1714E 45 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021218 208S1715E 110 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021300 222S1718E 105 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021306 233S1722E 100 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021312 242S1728E 95 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021318 247S1736E 90 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021400 253S1749E 75 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021406 254S1765E 70 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021412 248S1776E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021418 241S1788E 65 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021500 230S1796E 60 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021506 218S1795W 55 1116021512 206S1781W 50 1116021518 198S1767W 40 1116021600 190S1755W 45 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021606 185S1745W 55 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021612 179S1736W 65 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021618 175S1724W 75 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021700 174S1717W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021706 173S1713W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021712 172S1710W 90 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021718 171S1709W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021800 171S1711W 105 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021806 171S1716W 95 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021812 171S1723W 100 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021818 174S1733W 105 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021900 175S1746W 110 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021906 175S1759W 125 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021912 173S1775W 135 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116021918 172S1789W 145 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022000 172S1799W 150 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022006 174S1787E 155 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022012 174S1770E 140 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022018 174S1758E 130 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022100 174S1747E 120 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022106 175S1739E 125 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022112 176S1732E 115 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 1116022118 177S1727E 95 NNNN