WTXS51 PGTW 141500 WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 160214135333 2016021412 13S URIAH 003 01 240 10 SATL 030 T000 149S 0904E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 159S 0887E 065 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 168S 0868E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD T036 175S 0850E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD T048 182S 0831E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD T072 198S 0799E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 222S 0780E 100 T120 247S 0770E 085 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 90.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 90.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.9S 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.8S 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.5S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.2S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.8S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.2S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 24.7S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 90.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION. A 141018Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 72 THEN TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS NORTH-SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72, SPECIFICALLY IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.// 1316020918 112S 920E 20 1316021000 111S 925E 20 1316021006 110S 930E 20 1316021012 109S 936E 20 1316021018 106S 943E 25 1316021100 103S 950E 25 1316021106 98S 958E 25 1316021112 98S 968E 25 1316021118 101S 974E 30 1316021200 104S 974E 25 1316021206 107S 972E 30 1316021212 111S 968E 30 1316021218 115S 964E 30 1316021300 120S 958E 30 1316021306 123S 950E 30 1316021312 126S 941E 35 1316021318 132S 931E 40 1316021400 138S 921E 45 1316021406 144S 913E 50 1316021412 149S 904E 55 1316021412 149S 904E 55 NNNN