WTXS51 PGTW 170900 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 160317080121 2016031706 15S EMERAUDE 004 01 295 02 SATL 025 T000 104S 0840E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 104S 0839E 130 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD T024 110S 0849E 135 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD T036 114S 0862E 130 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD T048 120S 0873E 120 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD T072 132S 0884E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 141S 0882E 100 T120 153S 0868E 090 AMP NNNN SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 84.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 84.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.4S 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.0S 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.4S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.0S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.2S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.1S 88.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.3S 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 84.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z. // BT #0001 NNNN 1516031400 107S 879E 15 1516031406 109S 877E 15 1516031412 111S 874E 15 1516031418 112S 871E 20 1516031500 112S 868E 25 1516031506 112S 866E 25 1516031512 112S 863E 30 1516031518 111S 858E 40 1516031600 110S 854E 50 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031706 104S 840E 125 1516031706 104S 840E 125 1516031706 104S 840E 125