WTXS51 PGTW 211500 WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210421125126 2021042112 29S JOBO 002 01 270 04 SATL 040 T000 097S 0478E 060 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD T012 096S 0468E 070 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD T024 095S 0456E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T036 093S 0444E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T048 090S 0435E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T072 085S 0417E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD T096 080S 0400E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD T120 076S 0380E 030 AMP 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 9.7S 47.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 47.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 9.6S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 9.5S 45.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 9.3S 44.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 9.0S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 8.5S 41.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 8.0S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 7.6S 38.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 47.5E. 21APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) VERIFIES THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TC 29S, WITH A WEAK EYE LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY BY THE 211000Z HOUR, AND SUBSEQUENTLY FADING BY THE 211200Z HOUR. A 211036Z AMSR2 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EXHIBITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), FORMING A CLEAR 12NM MICROWAVE EYE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DVORAK-BASED ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0-T3.4 ARE LIKELY UNDER-ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY DUE TO KNOWN DVORAK TECHNIQUE BIASES WITH COMPACT SYSTEMS. THUS, INTENSITY IS INCREASED ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRIMARILY DUE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN THE MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. OVERALL, TC JOBO LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST INDICATIVE OF AN IMPROVED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ROUND OUT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC JOBO HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE RECENT PERIOD OF SLOWING IS ATTRIBUTED TO A WEAKENED GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF TANZANIA JUST AFTER TAU 96. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INDUCE INCREASED SHEAR, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SHEAR RELAXES ONCE AGAIN, A BRIEF PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION ONCE INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF THE FORECAST, WITH SPREAD INCREASING FROM 65NM AT TAU 48 TO 130NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. // 2921041418 104S 782E 15 2921041500 102S 776E 15 2921041506 100S 770E 15 2921041512 97S 766E 15 2921041518 98S 762E 15 2921041600 100S 759E 15 2921041606 100S 747E 15 2921041612 102S 735E 15 2921041618 99S 723E 15 2921041700 98S 702E 15 2921041706 98S 687E 15 2921041712 101S 676E 15 2921041718 105S 666E 15 2921041800 107S 661E 15 2921041806 109S 651E 20 2921041812 112S 642E 20 2921041818 115S 622E 20 2921041900 111S 612E 20 2921041906 105S 586E 25 2921041912 114S 573E 25 2921041918 115S 554E 25 2921042000 111S 537E 25 2921042006 108S 524E 30 2921042012 105S 510E 30 2921042018 102S 498E 35 2921042100 99S 488E 45 2921042106 97S 482E 55 2921042106 97S 482E 55 2921042112 97S 478E 60 2921042112 97S 478E 60 NNNN