WTIO51 PGTW 182100 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 160518185554 2016051818 01B ONE 003 01 025 07 SATL 035 T000 150N 0817E 045 R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 156N 0822E 050 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD T024 164N 0832E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 175N 0846E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 188N 0866E 050 R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD T072 216N 0910E 040 R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD T096 244N 0949E 025 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 81.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 81.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.6N 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.4N 83.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.5N 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.8N 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.6N 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.4N 94.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 81.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND DEEP CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 181325Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INFERRED FROM THE 181630Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 DEGREE CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS STEERED BY A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BETWEEN TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARDS, A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRIGGER GRADUAL DECAY. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THEN LANDFALL INTO BANGLADESH NEAR CHITTAGONG WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.// 0116051406 62N 840E 20 0116051412 64N 836E 20 0116051418 66N 832E 20 0116051500 68N 828E 25 0116051506 70N 824E 25 0116051512 73N 821E 25 0116051518 77N 818E 25 0116051600 81N 816E 25 0116051606 85N 813E 25 0116051612 89N 812E 25 0116051618 94N 809E 25 0116051700 101N 809E 25 0116051706 108N 810E 25 0116051712 113N 812E 30 0116051718 122N 814E 30 0116051800 130N 815E 30 0116051806 139N 815E 40 0116051812 144N 814E 40 0116051818 150N 817E 45 NNNN