WTIO51 PGTW 190300 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 160519003841 2016051900 01B ONE 004 01 035 10 SATL 025 T000 157N 0821E 045 R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD T012 165N 0829E 050 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD T024 175N 0841E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 186N 0857E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 199N 0878E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 229N 0924E 040 T096 246N 0947E 025 AMP 072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 82.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 82.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.5N 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.5N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.6N 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.9N 87.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.9N 92.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 24.6N 94.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 82.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP, BROAD BUT FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 182121Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 DEGREE CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TEMPERED ONLY BY ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO INDIA. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL PEAK AT 60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRIGGER GRADUAL DECAY. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, THEN LANDFALL INTO BANGLADESH NEAR CHITTAGONG WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// 0116051406 62N 840E 20 0116051412 64N 836E 20 0116051418 66N 832E 20 0116051500 68N 828E 25 0116051506 70N 824E 25 0116051512 73N 821E 25 0116051518 77N 818E 25 0116051600 81N 816E 25 0116051606 85N 813E 25 0116051612 89N 812E 25 0116051618 94N 809E 25 0116051700 101N 809E 25 0116051706 108N 810E 25 0116051712 113N 812E 30 0116051718 122N 814E 30 0116051800 130N 815E 30 0116051806 139N 815E 40 0116051812 144N 814E 40 0116051818 149N 815E 45 0116051900 157N 821E 45 NNNN