WTIO51 PGTW 200300 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 160520021838 2016052000 01B ROANU 008 01 030 14 SATL 060 T000 176N 0844E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 190N 0865E 050 R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD T024 205N 0892E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD T036 221N 0920E 050 R034 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 238N 0942E 030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 84.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 84.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.0N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.1N 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.8N 94.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 84.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND EARLY HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WITHIN THE PAST THREE HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REESTABLISHED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FORMED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 192105Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. WITH THE CDO OBSCURING THE LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND THE POOR MICROWAVE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF BURMA PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, BUT PROXIMITY TO THE INDIAN LANDMASS IS TEMPERING DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED AS TC 01B CONTINUES TO BE STEERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA. AS THE TRACK MOVES SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, TC ROANU IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS. THE SYSETM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 IN THE VICINITY OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AS A 50 KNOT SYSTEM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN BURMA BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// 0116051406 62N 840E 20 0116051412 64N 836E 20 0116051418 66N 832E 20 0116051500 68N 828E 25 0116051506 70N 824E 25 0116051512 73N 821E 25 0116051518 77N 818E 25 0116051600 81N 816E 25 0116051606 85N 813E 25 0116051612 89N 812E 25 0116051618 94N 809E 25 0116051700 101N 809E 25 0116051706 108N 810E 25 0116051712 113N 812E 30 0116051718 122N 814E 30 0116051800 130N 815E 30 0116051806 139N 815E 40 0116051812 146N 816E 40 0116051818 149N 816E 45 0116051821 152N 816E 45 0116051900 151N 819E 45 0116051906 152N 824E 50 0116051912 156N 831E 50 0116051918 164N 836E 40 0116052000 176N 844E 45 NNNN