WTIO51 PGTW 100300 WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 151010011603 2015101000 03A THREE 002 01 305 04 SATL 050 T000 149N 0695E 035 T012 153N 0693E 035 T024 158N 0692E 040 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD T036 162N 0689E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD T048 166N 0683E 040 R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 173N 0662E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD T096 181N 0638E 035 T120 189N 0611E 025 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 69.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 69.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.3N 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.8N 69.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.2N 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.6N 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 17.3N 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 18.1N 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.9N 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 69.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE EIR LOOP SHOWS ORGANIZED CONVECTION, A 092211Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WELL DEFINED SHALLOW CURVED BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON PREVIOUS ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 03A IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THE STEERING STR BUILDS OVER THE CYCLONE; DRIVING IT WEST. EXPECT MODEST INTENSIFICATION DUE TO REDUCED VWS (5-10 KNOTS); HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP, WILL HAMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE (15-20 KNOTS) AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ARABIAN SEA. THE INCREASED VWS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS, WILL LEAD TO THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK; HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF THE WESTWARD TRANSITION IS WIDE SPREAD. DUE TO LIMITED GUIDANCE AND ITS EXTENDED SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. IN ADDITION, DUE TO THE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT IN A MAJORITY OF THE ARABIAN SEA, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY AND DISSIPATES SOONER THAN FORECASTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// 0315100606 129N 731E 15 0315100612 127N 723E 15 0315100618 125N 719E 15 0315100700 125N 718E 20 0315100706 125N 717E 20 0315100712 125N 717E 25 0315100718 126N 716E 30 0315100800 127N 715E 30 0315100806 129N 713E 30 0315100812 131N 712E 30 0315100818 134N 709E 30 0315100900 136N 706E 30 0315100906 139N 704E 30 0315100912 143N 702E 30 0315100918 147N 698E 35 0315101000 149N 695E 35 NNNN