WTIO51 PGTW 300900 WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 151030080201 2015103006 04A CHAPALA 007 01 270 07 SATL 020 T000 142N 0611E 135 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD T012 142N 0597E 145 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD T024 142N 0583E 145 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD T036 143N 0569E 135 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD T048 144N 0553E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD T072 151N 0521E 100 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD T096 166N 0501E 060 T120 185N 0488E 030 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 61.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 61.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 14.2N 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 14.2N 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 14.3N 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.4N 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.1N 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 16.6N 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 18.5N 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 60.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 30053OZ PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 7.0 FROM PGTW AND RECENT TRENDS IN BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM OTHER REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 04A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW INCLUDING A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SURROUNDING A 12 NM EYE. TC 04A IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW POLEWARD TURN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR INTENSIFY A BIT MORE IN THE NEAR-TERM. BY TAU 48, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE CIRCULATION MAY BEGIN TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 04A IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN YEMEN JUST AFTER TAU 72 AND RAPIDLY DECAY WHILE TRACKING INLAND DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD FOLLOWING THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. // 0415102500 57N 648E 15 0415102506 60N 646E 20 0415102512 65N 649E 20 0415102518 67N 652E 20 0415102600 69N 657E 20 0415102606 71N 661E 25 0415102612 79N 663E 25 0415102618 88N 662E 25 0415102700 96N 660E 25 0415102706 102N 657E 25 0415102712 105N 654E 25 0415102718 109N 651E 25 0415102800 115N 648E 30 0415102806 122N 649E 35 0415102812 128N 650E 40 0415102815 130N 648E 40 0415102818 131N 646E 45 0415102821 132N 644E 45 0415102900 135N 642E 50 0415102906 138N 638E 55 0415102906 138N 638E 55 0415102912 142N 631E 65 0415102912 142N 631E 65 0415102918 143N 623E 75 0415102918 143N 623E 75 0415102918 143N 623E 75 0415103000 142N 618E 100 0415103000 142N 618E 100 0415103000 142N 618E 100 0415103006 142N 611E 135 0415103006 142N 611E 135 0415103006 142N 611E 135 NNNN