WTIO51 PGTW 060300 WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 151106004439 2015110600 05A MEGH 004 01 245 07 SATL 060 T000 134N 0627E 040 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD T012 128N 0612E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD T024 124N 0594E 065 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD T036 122N 0574E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD T048 122N 0553E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD T072 122N 0517E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD T096 125N 0488E 050 T120 131N 0465E 025 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 62.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 62.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.8N 61.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.4N 59.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 12.2N 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 12.2N 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 12.2N 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 12.5N 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 13.1N 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 62.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 052246Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE MOSTLY UNCHANGED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE; HOWEVER, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT THE DRY AIR HAS NOT STARTED TO PENETRATE THE CIRCULATION. TC MEGH IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER OMAN. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, ALONG TRACK SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS, STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN LAND INTERACTION AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCOTRA ISLAND AND THE HORN OF AFRICA. TC 05A WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.// 0515110306 123N 699E 15 0515110312 126N 695E 15 0515110318 132N 689E 15 0515110400 135N 684E 20 0515110406 137N 678E 25 0515110412 138N 670E 25 0515110418 139N 663E 25 0515110500 140N 659E 30 0515110506 141N 649E 35 0515110512 139N 639E 35 0515110518 137N 634E 40 0515110600 134N 627E 40 NNNN