WTXS51 PGTW 272100 WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 171227193253 2017122718 02S HILDA 001 01 210 09 SATL 060 T000 188S 1216E 040 R034 110 NE QD 035 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD T012 202S 1219E 035 T024 215S 1222E 030 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (HILDA) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (HILDA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 121.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 121.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.2S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.5S 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 121.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02S. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 271810Z HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 271226Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. TC 02S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 262300).// 0217122500 111S1260E 15 0217122506 120S1259E 15 0217122512 129S1256E 20 0217122518 137S1251E 20 0217122600 144S1239E 20 0217122606 148S1233E 20 0217122612 154S1232E 25 0217122618 160S1231E 25 0217122700 166S1228E 30 0217122706 174S1225E 25 0217122712 180S1221E 50 0217122712 180S1221E 50 0217122718 188S1216E 40 NNNN