WTXS51 PGTW 051500 WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 170205125935 2017020512 04S CARLOS 003 01 120 02 SATL 020 T000 175S 0570E 045 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD T012 178S 0572E 050 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD T024 185S 0570E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD T036 193S 0563E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD T048 203S 0551E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD T072 218S 0527E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 232S 0521E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD T120 254S 0547E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 57.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 57.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 17.8S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 18.5S 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 19.3S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 20.3S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 21.8S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 23.2S 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 25.4S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 57.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. // 0417020218 137S 561E 25 0417020300 135S 556E 25 0417020306 137S 553E 25 0417020312 141S 555E 30 0417020318 147S 563E 30 0417020400 153S 568E 30 0417020406 159S 568E 30 0417020412 167S 565E 35 0417020418 171S 565E 35 0417020500 173S 566E 35 0417020506 174S 568E 35 0417020512 175S 570E 45 NNNN